El Nino-driven dryness is a double blow for farmers already grappling with fertiliser and diesel shortages caused by the Iran war
El Nino-driven dryness is a double blow for farmers already grappling with fertiliser and diesel shortages caused by the Iran war - Dry weather is disrupting crop planting across Asia, raising concerns about food supplies in the world's most populous region, and an expected severe El Nino weather pattern could inflict more damage.
From India's grain-producing northwestern plains to Australia's eastern wheat belt, and from Thailand's rice fields to Indonesia's vast palm oil plantations, hot weather and below-normal rains are hurting crops and forcing farmers to reduce planting, farmers, analysts and traders said. El Nino-driven dryness is a double blow for farmers already grappling with fertiliser and diesel shortages caused by the Iran war.
Wheat prices Wv1 have risen about 20% since the start of 2026, largely on concerns over drought in key US growing regions. Rice prices at major Southeast Asian export hubs have climbed around 15% over the past month on rising production costs and fears of tighter supplies.
One of the strongest El Ninos on record is widely expected to develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hot-dry weather to Asia and excessive rains to the Americas, with global climate change making things worse.
"The El Nino impact globally starts with Southeast Asia, India, Australia, before it has wider implications downstream in North America and South America," said Chris Hyde, a US-based meteorologist at satellite data and imagery firm SkyFi. Hyde said early signs of drought are already visible on the company's high-resolution imagery platform, across parts of Asia.n India, the meteorological department last week further reduced its forecast for the four-month monsoon season, which delivers about 70% of annual rains.
"With temperatures across most parts of the country remaining well above normal, conditions are currently unfavourable for the timely sowing of summer crops," said one New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house. "Planting is likely to be delayed due to the late onset of the monsoon, but greater concern lies in the possibility of below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells after its arrival. "For Southeast Asian countries, dryness is hitting rice and palm oil yields in some areas.
"Everybody is worried , it's risky," said Nerawat Oramah, a 47-year-old farmer in central Thailand's Chainat province. "For my second harvest, I have to wait and see the situation. It's a risk for every one , there will only be one harvest.
" Thailand and the Philippines plant their main rice crops in June-July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are now sowing their second-season crops. Indonesia's most populated Java island and some areas in northern Sumatra, south Kalimantan and Sulawesi have not experienced any rain for more than 10 days, according to the country's meteorological agency, with medium to low rainfall expected in June.
Rice prices are edging up even though India, which accounts for 40% of global exports, is sitting on ample supplies after years of near-record harvests.
"There is clear indication of crisis as rice prices have moved substantially higher without any major shortage," said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company, adding Thai rice prices have climbed around 15% in the past month. "India has a huge rice stockpile, several times more than what it needs.
But the thinking is that very soon India will start looking at these stocks as a critical asset and may introduce some sort of export curbs if we see problems with early part of the monsoon.
" However, KKP Research, a unit of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank in Thailand, said some of the impact of the dryness could be cushioned by strong reservoir levels. "What we are more concerned about is fertiliser supply," the bank said in a note to Reuters. "We estimate that a fertiliser shortage, if it occurs, could reduce rice production by up to 15-20% in the worst case.
" Recent rains over parched Australian farmland have triggered late wheat sowing, but growers are wary of the El Nino in the coming months that could hit yields. The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting that many cropping areas across New South Wales and Queensland will see between 20 and 40 millimetres less rain than usual over the next three months.
John Lowe, a farmer near Burcher in central New South Wales, said his total cropping area is still around 30% smaller than it could have been. El Nino is likely to be neutral for China and the Black Sea region, while bringing more rains to the Americas.
"Statistically speaking, there is not much correlation with weather in the US and El Nino, during the summer," said Drew Lerner, an agricultural meteorologist and president of World Weather Inc. "In a lot of years, we can come up with a little bit more moisture in an El Nino summer. But that does not really mean above-normal rainfall. "Pakistan's trade deficit hits record $34.75 billion in 11 months
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